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Weekly Picks

Weekly Stock Picks — March 5, 2026

By Poor Man's Stocks15 min read
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. We are not licensed financial advisors. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Welcome to our first weekly stock picks analysis. Each week, we screen the market using Benjamin Graham's value investing principles — looking for stocks trading below their intrinsic value with a margin of safety. Our goal: find quality companies the market has temporarily mispriced.

This week's mix:

  • 🏦 2 Value Stocks (trading below book value or Graham Number)
  • 💰 2 Dividend Stocks (yield > 3%, sustainable payout)
  • 🔄 1 Contrarian/Turnaround Play

Pick #1: Citigroup (C) — Value Stock 🏦

Current Price: $111.32 | Exchange: NYSE | Sector: Financial Services

The Thesis

Citigroup is one of the largest global banks, yet it trades at a price-to-book ratio of just 0.98 — literally below the value of its assets. Under CEO Jane Fraser's ongoing transformation plan, Citi is simplifying its business, exiting underperforming markets, and returning capital to shareholders. The market is pricing in execution risk from the restructuring, but the underlying franchise is immensely valuable. With FY2025 EPS of $6.99 (up 17.7% YoY) and a CET1 capital ratio of 13.2%, Citi is well-capitalized and growing.

Graham Number Calculation

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value Per Share)
Graham Number = √(22.5 × $6.99 × $113.34)
Graham Number = √($17,823.62)
Graham Number = $133.50

Margin of Safety: 16.6% — Current price ($111.32) sits 16.6% below the Graham Number ($133.50).

Key Metrics

MetricValue
P/E Ratio15.93
P/B Ratio0.98
Dividend Yield2.08%
CET1 Ratio13.2%
Debt/Equity1.49
EPS Growth (YoY)+17.7%
Net Income (FY2025)$14.3B
Revenue Growth+6.1%

Why It's Undervalued

Citigroup is the only major U.S. money-center bank still trading below book value. JPMorgan trades at 2.2x book, Bank of America at 1.4x. The discount reflects legacy regulatory concerns and restructuring costs, but Citi's earnings momentum is accelerating — net income grew 12.8% in FY2025, and the bank's services and wealth management businesses are firing on all cylinders.

Risk Factors

  • Regulatory overhang: Citi has outstanding consent orders from the Fed/OCC that constrain management flexibility
  • Restructuring execution: The multi-year transformation is complex; missteps could delay profitability improvements
  • Credit cycle exposure: As a global bank, Citi faces rising provision costs if the economy weakens ($10.2B in credit provisions in FY2025)

Verdict: BUY 🟢

Trading below book value with accelerating earnings growth. The market is giving you $1 of bank assets for $0.98. If Citi's P/B merely rises to 1.2x (still below peers), the stock would be worth ~$136. Graham's math agrees.

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Pick #2: Pfizer (PFE) — Value Stock 🏦

Current Price: $26.62 | Exchange: NYSE | Sector: Healthcare

The Thesis

Pfizer has been the most hated large-cap pharma stock since its COVID revenue cliff. But here's what the market is missing: Pfizer's non-COVID portfolio grew 6% operationally in FY2025, the company generated $9.1B in free cash flow, and it's targeting $1.3B in net cost savings by 2026. Gross margins expanded to 74.3% (up from 58.1% in FY2023), and the new diabetes drug deal with Sciwind Biosciences shows management is actively building the pipeline. At an adjusted P/E of ~8.4x, Pfizer is priced like a company in decline — but the numbers say otherwise.

Graham Number Calculation

Using adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS of ~$3.16 to reflect ongoing earning power:

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value Per Share)
Graham Number = √(22.5 × $3.16 × $15.14)
Graham Number = √($1,076.05)
Graham Number = $32.80

Margin of Safety: 18.8% — Current price ($26.62) sits 18.8% below the Graham Number ($32.80).

Key Metrics

MetricValue
P/E Ratio (GAAP)19.57
P/E Ratio (Adjusted)~8.4
P/B Ratio1.76
Dividend Yield6.46%
Current Ratio1.16
Debt/Equity0.75
Free Cash Flow$9.1B
Gross Margin74.3%

Why It's Undervalued

The market is anchoring to Pfizer's 2023 earnings collapse when COVID revenue dried up. But FY2025 showed stabilization: revenue was $62.6B (essentially flat YoY, down just 1.7%), while margins expanded dramatically. The GAAP P/E of ~19.6 is inflated by one-time charges; the adjusted P/E of ~8.4x is genuinely cheap for a company with a 74% gross margin and $9B+ in annual free cash flow.

Risk Factors

  • Patent cliff: Key drugs face patent expirations over the next 3-5 years (Eliquis loses exclusivity in 2028)
  • Dividend sustainability: The 6.46% yield is high, and the payout ratio is stretched; a cut would crater the stock
  • Pipeline uncertainty: New drugs (Sciwind diabetes deal, oncology pipeline) need to deliver or the revenue gap widens
  • Political risk: FDA leadership concerns under current administration could slow approvals

Verdict: BUY 🟢

At a 6.46% yield and 8.4x adjusted earnings, you're being paid handsomely to wait for the pipeline to mature. The Graham Number analysis shows 18.8% upside before the stock is even fairly valued. Income investors get a fat dividend while they wait.


Pick #3: Verizon Communications (VZ) — Dividend Stock 💰

Current Price: $51.20 | Exchange: NYSE | Sector: Telecommunications

The Thesis

Verizon is the ultimate dividend machine. The company has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years, currently yielding 5.34%. VZ is pivoting to fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband and 5G enterprise solutions. FY2025 revenue grew 2.5% to $138.2B, and free cash flow came in at a massive $20.1B — easily covering the $11.6B annual dividend obligation. The payout ratio on FCF is just 57%, leaving room for continued raises and debt reduction.

Graham Number Calculation

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value Per Share)
Graham Number = √(22.5 × $4.06 × $24.69)
Graham Number = √($2,255.09)
Graham Number = $47.49

Note: VZ trades slightly above its Graham Number at $51.20 (about 8% premium). However, the Graham Number doesn't fully capture the value of Verizon's massive, predictable cash flow stream. We evaluate VZ primarily as a yield play.

Key Metrics

MetricValue
P/E Ratio12.61
P/B Ratio2.07
Dividend Yield5.34%
Current Ratio0.91
Debt/Equity1.74
Free Cash Flow$20.1B
FCF Payout Ratio57%
Dividend Growth (YoY)1.86%

Why It's Undervalued

Verizon's 5.34% yield is nearly 4x the S&P 500 average. The stock trades at just 12.6x earnings in a market where the average S&P 500 P/E is above 22x. Yes, telecom is a mature industry — but VZ's FWA broadband business is adding subscribers rapidly, and 5G enterprise monetization is just beginning. At $20B+ in annual FCF, the dividend is rock-solid.

Risk Factors

  • Debt load: $181.6B in total debt is massive; rising rates increase interest expense
  • Subscriber churn: VZ's pricing strategy cost it 2.25 million customers in recent quarters (CEO admitted this publicly)
  • Growth limitations: Telecom is a capital-intensive, slow-growth business; don't expect stock price fireworks
  • Competition: T-Mobile continues to take market share with aggressive pricing

Verdict: BUY 🟢

For income-focused investors, VZ is a buy at 5.34% yield with 57% FCF payout ratio. The dividend is safe, growing (slowly), and you're buying at a below-market P/E. Think of it as a bond alternative that grows.

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Pick #4: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — Dividend Stock 💰

Current Price: $62.33 | Exchange: NYSE | Sector: Healthcare

The Thesis

Bristol-Myers CEO Chris Boerner just said the company has its "richest product pipeline in the last decade." That's not empty talk — FY2025 showed a return to profitability with net income of $7.1B (after a net loss in FY2024 due to acquisition writedowns). Free cash flow hit $12.8B, comfortably covering the $5.1B annual dividend. The 4% yield comes from a company actively rebuilding its growth story through new drugs in immunology, cardiovascular, and oncology.

Graham Number Calculation

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value Per Share)
Graham Number = √(22.5 × $3.46 × $9.06)
Graham Number = √($705.68)
Graham Number = $26.57

Note: BMY's Graham Number ($26.57) is well below the stock price ($62.33) because the book value per share ($9.06) is depressed by massive intangible asset amortization from the Celgene acquisition. This is a known limitation of Graham Number analysis for acquisition-heavy pharma companies. We evaluate BMY primarily on FCF yield and dividend safety.

Key Metrics

MetricValue
P/E Ratio18.01
P/B Ratio6.88
Dividend Yield4.00%
Current Ratio1.26
Debt/Equity2.44
Free Cash Flow$12.8B
FCF Per Share$6.30
FCF Payout Ratio39.5%

Why It's Undervalued

The market remembers BMY's FY2024 loss (-$8.9B, driven by acquisition write-downs) and still prices the stock with skepticism. But strip away the accounting noise: FCF was $12.8B in FY2025, the dividend costs only $5.1B, and new drugs like Opdivo, Eliquis successor candidates, and the cardiovascular pipeline are filling the revenue gap from upcoming patent expirations. The 39.5% FCF payout ratio is one of the safest in pharma.

Risk Factors

  • Patent cliff: Eliquis (their biggest drug, ~$13B revenue) faces patent expiration by 2028
  • High debt: $45.1B in total debt (2.44x D/E) from the Celgene acquisition still weighs on the balance sheet
  • Pipeline dependency: If late-stage pipeline drugs fail clinical trials, the revenue gap becomes a crater
  • Sector headwinds: Drug pricing reform and government negotiations could compress margins

Verdict: HOLD/BUY 🟡🟢

BMY is a solid income pick at 4% yield with strong FCF coverage. The "Hold" qualifier is because of the patent cliff risk. If you're an income investor comfortable riding out 2-3 years of uncertainty, the entry point is reasonable. Watch for positive pipeline catalysts to upgrade to a full Buy.


Pick #5: Intel Corporation (INTC) — Contrarian/Turnaround Play 🔄

Current Price: $45.58 | Exchange: NASDAQ | Sector: Technology — Semiconductors

The Thesis

This is the highest-risk, highest-reward pick of the week. Intel's stock has surged 75% over the past year under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who is executing one of the most ambitious corporate turnarounds in tech history. Intel is transforming from a chip designer into a foundry-first company, backed by $20B+ in CHIPS Act funding and new fabrication facilities in Ohio, Arizona, and Germany. FY2025 revenue was flat at $52.9B, but gross margins are stabilizing and the company is sitting on $37.4B in cash and short-term investments. The turnaround thesis: if Intel's foundry business captures even a fraction of the $100B+ annual semiconductor manufacturing TAM, the stock is dramatically undervalued.

Graham Number Calculation

Graham Number = √(22.5 × EPS × Book Value Per Share)
EPS (FY2025) = -$0.06 (negative)

Cannot calculate — Graham Number requires positive earnings. Intel reported a small net loss of -$267M in FY2025 (dramatically improved from -$18.8B in FY2024). As profitability returns, the Graham Number will become meaningful. For reference, at BVPS of $25.23 and estimated FY2026 EPS of $1.50, the forward Graham Number would be approximately $29.13.

Key Metrics

MetricValue
P/E RatioN/A (negative EPS)
Forward P/E (est.)~30x
P/B Ratio1.81
Dividend Yield0% (suspended)
Current Ratio2.02
Debt/Equity0.41
Cash & Investments$37.4B
EBITDA Margin17.96%

Why It's Undervalued (Contrarian Case)

Intel trades at just 1.81x book value while TSMC trades at 8x+ and AMD at 4x+. If Intel's foundry business becomes a credible second source for leading-edge chips — which the CHIPS Act is specifically designed to enable — then the current valuation represents a massive discount. The new Ohio fab completion timeline is firming up, and CEO Tan is reportedly reconsidering the company's manufacturing tech roadmap (potentially pivoting to proven nodes where Intel can compete more effectively).

Risk Factors

  • Execution risk is enormous: Intel has failed to deliver on manufacturing roadmaps for a decade; why believe this time is different?
  • Cash burn: Free cash flow was -$4.9B in FY2025; the company is spending faster than it's earning
  • No dividend: The dividend was suspended in 2024; income investors have nothing to hold onto
  • Competitive gap: TSMC and Samsung are years ahead in leading-edge manufacturing
  • Board instability: Chairman Frank Yeary departing in May 2026 adds uncertainty during a critical period
  • Dilution: Share count grew 5.8% in FY2025 via equity raises to fund capex

Verdict: WATCH 🟡

Intel is a speculative turnaround play, NOT a Graham-style value stock. The balance sheet is strong (2.0x current ratio, $37B cash), but the company isn't profitable yet. We're putting this on the Watch list. If FY2026 shows positive EPS and foundry revenue traction, we'll upgrade. Position size should be small — this is a lottery ticket with better odds than most.

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Weekly Summary

TickerPriceGraham #Margin of SafetyYieldCategoryVerdict
C$111.32$133.5016.6%2.08%ValueBUY
PFE$26.62$32.80*18.8%6.46%ValueBUY
VZ$51.20$47.49-7.8%†5.34%DividendBUY
BMY$62.33$26.57‡N/A4.00%DividendHOLD/BUY
INTC$45.58N/AN/A0%TurnaroundWATCH

*PFE Graham Number uses adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS of $3.16 †VZ trades above Graham Number; evaluated on dividend yield and FCF coverage ‡BMY Graham Number distorted by low book value from acquisition amortization


How We Pick Stocks

Every week, we screen for stocks using Benjamin Graham's value investing framework:

  1. Graham Number — We calculate the maximum fair price using the formula √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). Try our free calculator →
  2. Margin of Safety — We look for stocks trading at least 15% below their Graham Number
  3. Dividend Safety — For income picks, we verify the FCF payout ratio is below 70%
  4. Balance Sheet Health — Current ratio > 1.0 and reasonable debt levels
  5. Qualitative Analysis — We read earnings calls, news, and analyst reports for context

We don't chase momentum. We don't buy hype. We buy value.


Next Week's Preview

We'll be screening the energy sector for undervalued dividend payers as oil prices stabilize above $76/barrel. We'll also revisit any picks from this week that saw significant price movement.


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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It is NOT financial advice. The authors may hold positions in stocks mentioned. We are not licensed financial advisors, brokers, or dealers. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Some links on this page are affiliate links — we may earn a commission if you sign up through them, at no extra cost to you.

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